A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
