Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
